Partygate Exposes the Casual Carelessness of Johnson’s Ancien Regime
“Let them eat cake” could become an enduring metaphor for this government. With the Prime Minister and Chancellor under fire for raising taxes, while families struggle with energy and food bills, their police fines for attending an impromptu birthday party during lockdown have brought the spirit of Marie Antoinette into British politics.
There are conflicting reports as to whether pieces of cake were actually consumed after Boris Johnson was “ambushed by cake” in the cabinet room. Of all the Downing Street parties under investigation by the police, this one feels marginal: a short party with staff who had already been in meetings together. Nevertheless, it makes Johnson the first serving Prime Minister to be found guilty of a criminal offence. The aftertaste is especially bitter for Chancellor Rishi Sunak, who had turned up for what he thought was a Covid rally but whose accidental presence at the party now could ruin his political future.
Sunak’s transformation from a leading contender to replace Johnson into a man now propped up by the prime minister is a parable of how quickly political fortunes can change. Last summer, he topped a poll of conservative activists who asked for their favorite to succeed Johnson, while his closest rival Liz Truss didn’t even come close. “Dishy Rishi” – a nickname from his City days – had a slick PR operation that polished his image, and a thirst for numbers and details that put his boss to shame. But in just three short weeks, its popularity has collapsed. This has changed Johnson’s chances of survival, in part because it left the Tories without a clear figure to unite around.
It is not Sunak’s wealth that is most important, but his judgment. The man who looked so confident during the pandemic has stumbled upon a mini-budget that was tone deaf to voters’ struggles, and his blind spot over his wife’s tax affairs. The instinct to protect his family from prying eyes has hurt the apparent public interest in knowing that his wife was a nun who did not pay the full UK tax on dividends from her father’s company. That may have been legal, but politically unwise. The additional disclosure that Sunak still had a US green card at the start of his tenure as chancellor has made it easy to portray him as a wealthy man out of touch and perhaps not even fully committed to Britain. It is a gift to Keir Starmer, who expects the next election to be fought on the cost of living.
Some naivety isn’t surprising in a man who has rocketed to the top of politics after a stellar City career. But it has confused fellow MPs looking for a competent leader to replace the reckless Johnson. Sunak should have been open about his wife’s tax affairs much earlier. And the constant rumors that he might step down do not endear him to his colleagues.
The hours of silence that passed between Sunak being notified of the fine and his unreserved apology suggest that he had considered his options. Had he stopped, he could have regained some of the morale. By deciding not to, he has upset Johnson. Yet he clearly finds that he was unjustly fined for an event in which he was only superficially and accidentally involved. Again, the Prime Minister has sullied those in his orbit.
The only minister to have resigned so far is Justice Secretary Lord Wolfson, who had the integrity to declare that he could no longer serve a government that repeatedly broke the law. In particular, Wolfson objected not only to breaking the rules, but also to the “official response”. Johnson’s attempt to shake this off by stating that he now feels “an even greater sense of obligation to deliver on the priorities of the British people” was just pitiful.
The equation may change again in the coming weeks. Scotland Yard is likely to fine the Prime Minister for at least two other events: a farewell party for his former communications director Lee Cain where he delivered a speech, and a party at the Johnsons’ flat above No. 11. exposing the Johnson administration, in which classified intelligence documents were left lying around the flat until new protocols kept them safe in the office.
Sue Gray, the official whose report on violating the lockdown rules will be released after the May election, has apparently been given some of the hundreds of photos given to police. If any of these get published, they can still be fatal. As one of my former number 10 colleagues says, “who the hell takes pictures of themselves at work?” The prime minister’s allies are already trying to blame the number 10 staff, but this is the same old defense: Johnson isn’t in charge when things go wrong, but when things go right, he gets credit.
Tory ministers will continue to defend the indefensible until MPs decide he is an electoral liability – an early test will likely be a wakefield by-election. But those ministers have certainly put themselves out of the running for the top job. The argument that leaders cannot be changed during war is an affront to history. The idea that the fines are no more than a speeding ticket is undermined by the fact that this government has broken the laws it made. The claim that Johnson did not knowingly mislead parliament seems increasingly flimsy. There must be a greater chance that the next Tory leader will come from outside the current cabinet.
Only three MPs have called on the prime minister to resign. The best that can be said for the rest is that with Sunak pulling the strings, they can’t agree on a candidate to anoint without a contest. But they all know that Johnson’s “cakeist” philosophy will continue to get him in trouble. You can’t have your birthday cake and eat it too.
camilla.cavendish@ft.com