Hospital admissions came to the northwest before the lockdown


Hospital admissions for the coronavirus in the Northwest peaked ten days before lockdown was imposed, in the latest sign that Tier Three was helping to defeat the virus.

Figures from the Department of Health’s own coronavirus dashboard show that the daily mean Covid-19 admissions reached 308.4 on Oct. 26, but have been declining every day since then.

They were down 13 percent to 268.4 on November 4, the day before England’s second lockdown was enacted. No new data has been released yet.

And in Tier Two, hospital admissions seemed to peak seven days before lockdown, dropping eight percent from 127.4 to 117.7 in the seven-day period to Nov. 4.

The numbers are the latest suggestion that Boris Johnson may have hit the panic button too soon, without giving the Tier 3 restrictions – and the other brackets – time to work. A string of figures from last week supported the suggestion that the outbreak was shrinking before it closed, and Tory MPs have already called for the strictest restrictions to be relaxed in light of real-world data suggesting the worst is already behind the nation lay.

Experts had called on ministers to give the measures more time to take effect, but their calls were not heeded after SAGE estimated that the UK could face up to 4,000 deaths a day from the virus in early December.

However, their chilling projection was eventually revised down after officials admitted to discovering an ‘error’ in the data. The graph, along with several other doomsday predictions, reportedly led the prime minister to feel bounced in the decision to impose another lockdown, a cabinet ally said.

The average number of Covid-19 hospital admissions per day peaked on October 26 in the North West and on October 29 in London

Bristol is the only place in England's top 50 coronavirus hotspots in the south.  In the southwest city, home to 463,400 people, 410 cases per 100,000 were diagnosed in the week to November 6, almost half that of Oldham, which ranks first with 779 cases per 100,000

Bristol is the only place in England's top 50 coronavirus hotspots in the south.  In the southwest city, home to 463,400 people, 410 cases per 100,000 were diagnosed in the week to November 6, almost half that of Oldham, which ranks first with 779 cases per 100,000

Bristol is the only place in England’s top 50 coronavirus hotspots in the south. In the southwest city, home to 463,400 people, 410 cases per 100,000 were diagnosed in the week to November 6, almost half that of Oldham, which ranks first with 779 cases per 100,000

Mass coronavirus tests used in Liverpool will be rolled out to 66 local authorities, health minister said

Mass coronavirus tests used in Liverpool will be rolled out to 66 local authorities, health minister said

Mass coronavirus tests used in Liverpool will be rolled out to 66 local authorities, health minister said

FALLING NUMBER OF HOSPITALS IN ENGLAND

Data from the NHS region of England is from

North West

London

North East

East of England

Midlands

South West

South East

% change in hospital admissions on November 9 *

-12%

-8%

+ 9%

+ 10%

+ 14%

+ 26%

+ 31%

% change in hospital admissions as of October 28 *

+ 19%

+ 22%

+ 27%

+ 37%

+ 33%

+ 81%

+ 49%

* Percent decrease is based on the difference between the seven-day mean number of Covid-19 hospitalizations on October 28 and November 4, the last day for which data are available, in the second column. In the third column, it is based on the difference between the seven-day mean number of Covid-19 hospital admissions between October 21 and 28.

Tier 3 restrictions were imposed in Liverpool on October 14, Lancashire on October 17, and Greater Manchester on October 23.

Other areas, such as Nottinghamshire and South Yorkshire, followed later when local authorities wanted to force infections to prevent hospitals from becoming overloaded.

The then strictest measures, affecting about 10 million people, meant that pubs and bars in all their local authorities were shut with shutters and mixing between households was prohibited.

With the decline in social contact, all local authorities in Liverpool began to be infected two weeks after they took effect, and in most parts of Lancashire a few days later.

A drop in hospital admissions would lag the cases, officials said, because it takes longer for someone who is infected to develop symptoms severe enough to be hospitalized.

This meant they started falling a week after infections, which experts say was due to the longer time it took a person to be hospitalized.

The figures also show that the daily intakes never reached the same level as in the first wave in the Northwest, when they reached 412.9 a day on April 4.

But the total number of Covid-19 hospitalized patients across the region rose above the number in the second wave on Nov. 4, when it reached 2,793 per day.

Experts said many of these patients have just been tested and will have been added to these numbers, rather than being admitted to wards after contracting the disease in the community.

About 18 percent of hospital patients with Covid-19 caught it while in the hospital in October, figures from the NHS show. This is up from nine percent a month ago.

Infection rates in Liverpool's six local authorities started to decline ten days after Tier Three was imposed

Infection rates in Liverpool's six local authorities started to decline ten days after Tier Three was imposed

Infection rates in Liverpool’s six local authorities started to decline ten days after Tier Three was imposed

Tier 3 restrictions covered most of the northwest and much of the Midlands before lockdown was imposed

Tier 3 restrictions covered most of the northwest and much of the Midlands before lockdown was imposed

Tier 3 restrictions covered most of the northwest and much of the Midlands before lockdown was imposed

ONLY ONE OF ENGLAND’S 50 COVID HOTSPOTS IS IN THE SOUTH, DATA SHOWS

Only one place in the top 50 coronavirus hotspots in England is in the south, according to official statistics exposing the country’s north-south Covid rift.

Bristol has the 37th highest coronavirus infection rate among the 317 authorities in England, with officials diagnosing 410 cases for every 100,000 people in the week ending November 6.

But the town’s outbreak is still only half that of Oldham, which is currently the hardest hit area in the country with about 779 new cases for every 100,000 residents in the most recent full week of data.

Statistics from the Department of Health also show that no London neighborhood is among the 100 worst hit places, with Havering being the worst hit, coming in 106th with 252 cases per 100,000.

The numbers cast more doubt on whether a nationwide lockdown was needed to halt skyrocketing infection rates in the north.

But some academics argue that while infection rates in the South are not the highest, they are growing the fastest, and so urgent action was needed to avoid escalation.

Many northern authorities have seen cases in recent weeks, including Liverpool, Nottingham and Manchester. Experts have insisted that this is proof that the levels 2 and 3 restrictions, which were mainly introduced in the north, worked before the system was thrown out for a general shutdown.

Across England, hospital admissions also started to slow in the week before the second national lockdown, suggesting that the patchwork of additional measures taken helped to reduce infections.

Average daily hospital admissions rose by 30 percent between October 21 and 28, from 946.7 to 1226.9 per day, according to government data.

But in the following week, to November 4, they were up just six percent to 1,298, suggesting that hospital admissions are slowing down.

The greatest increases were seen in the Southeast and Southwest, up 31 percent to 112.9 per day and 26 percent to 96.1 per day, respectively, in the most recent data week.

But experts pointed out that these numbers were below levels in the north, suggesting more stringent measures were needed to curb the spread of the coronavirus – rather than a second lockdown.

Boris Johnson has said England will return to the three-tier system after lockdown. Speaking in the House of Commons last week, he said, ‘I want to emphasize that these (lockdown) restrictions are limited in time.

“After four weeks, on Wednesday December 2, they will expire and we plan to return to a tiered system on a local and regional basis.”

Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter, a statistician at Cambridge University, said last week that the tiered system worked only “slowly.”

“ It seems (they weren’t working enough) to get the R well below one and crucial to lowering the number of people who actually have it, ” he said.

Even England’s Chief Medical Officer, Professor Chris Whitty, admitted that the Tiered system was working and told MPs he was confident Tier Two had an effect and Tier Three had a greater effect.

‘The communities in the North and Midlands in particular, of course London too, has gone into a Level Two and some parts of East England have reacted remarkably.

And that’s why I’m sure the rates are significantly lower than if this had not happened.

“But the first indications we have at this point are that this hasn’t led to the R getting below one – it’s brought it much closer to one – but it’s still doubling over a longer period of time.”

.

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