Coronavirus UK: Health experts on Boris Johnson’s measures

Professor Keith Neal

Professor emeritus of epidemiology of infectious diseases, University of Nottingham

The plans are sensible. It is very easy to say that more needs to be done, but there is little evidence to make a decision.

If people who may have coronavirus isolate themselves from a fever and cough, this should limit the spread of the virus. What we know is that people are most contagious during the first week of symptoms.

Italy’s closure is not the one used in Wuhan – Italians are still going out and mixing. We must follow what is happening to inform our decision-making for the next two weeks.

It will be interesting to see how long the Italian population will accept the limited lockdown. They may have to do that for months and people will get tired and not cooperate. Enforcement is not possible like in China and Singapore.

Canceling school trips and cruises has almost no impact on the functioning of society. However, closing schools has consequences.

It can worsen the ability to manage the epidemic, with a reduction in health and social workers to look after children and an increase in grandparents providing childcare.

At sporting events, you have close contact with eight people – three of whom are behind you and are therefore difficult to infect. Closing an area will allow fans to watch in a pub or with friends, and closer contact can develop.

Dr. Bharat Pankhania

Senior Clinical Lecturer at the University of Exeter Medical School

While Prime Minister Mnister was talking about delay, the message should be that we can achieve delay if we also control it rigorously. Delay equals doing everything possible to avoid generating new business.

The message should be more explicit from the PM [if people] to take it on board and act on it. I would like more explicit instructions for employers to take their own initiatives.

Everyone has to make personal decisions. If you can work from home, you should. If you can avoid public transportation, you must do that. Take initiatives to protect your own health. People over 60 need to be more aware of the facts, because it will be more serious for them. Many are still working.

I know other countries have already done that [closed schools], but the science behind closures is weak. My instinct is that schools can mix grounds for infection, so we have a mystery there.

Dr. Michael Head,

Senior Research Fellow in Global Health, University of Southampton

Existing knowledge suggests that social distance is effective in slowing and reducing the peak of the outbreak.

However, these interventions require significant observance of the population over an extended period of time, otherwise fatigue may occur.

The peak of the outbreak is estimated at ten to twelve weeks.

The impact of closing sport events or stopping flights has a limited impact on reducing and slowing down the transmission.

Therefore, the Chief Medical Officer has emphasized the importance of timing in implementing a large-scale shutdown and has encouraged the support of the general population, particularly in protecting the most vulnerable members of society.

DR JENNIFER ROHN

Head of the Center of Urological Biology at University College London

These are painful decisions for the government to make, with the delicate balance of preventing widespread spread and deaths while trying not to do too much damage to the economy.

I personally think that the government has not gone far enough. I think it was prudent to demand that everyone with symptoms isolate themselves for seven days, but I would have liked these people to be tested quickly so that we can monitor the bona fide cases and their spread.

I was hoping to see a more robust answer at major public events. I think the time to stop this is now. There are indications that countries that have taken more drastic measures have reduced the steepness of the infection curve and it seems a gamble not to cancel at least major sporting events and concerts – which a large number of people would not want to attend anyway.

Dr. Max Pemberton, Mail columnist

There is a prevailing attitude that the government is not doing enough. That was compounded by yesterday’s decision not to lock the country.

We all need to calm down and understand that these are incredibly complex and nuanced matters. All doctors and scientists know that actions often have unforeseen consequences. Sometimes watchful waiting is the best option.

For example, I see a situation where schools close and children are locked inside. They may not show symptoms, but we know they can carry the virus.

So they hang out at home and spread the virus to older relatives. Parents – including NHS employees – must take time off to care for them. You can see how easily it can all go very wrong.

Let’s rely on the experts who advise the government on their strategy. It is a dynamic situation and will change depending on the evidence. In the meantime, I urge everyone to wash their hands thoroughly.

We know that the virus can spread through contaminated surfaces. Your failure in basic hygiene can ultimately cost someone’s life. If you have symptoms, isolate yourself. And let’s all stop pretending we know better than the experts.

Professor John Ashton

Former Regional Director of Public Health in the North West of England

There is still an excerpt about the official response. It just doesn’t seem that strategic. They seem to treat the crisis as a five-day cricket match with tea breaks. But the stock market has crashed and they have to get on the front foot.

When the world was hit by the Spanish flu epidemic in 1918, it was the cities that were most proactive in their approach and had the most impact on mortality rates. Take Hong Kong and Singapore. They got a grip early and closed schools.

In places like Hong Kong, officials work from home. Children in China receive online education.

I do not suggest closing schools, but we should do something about public health.

About 70-80 percent of the country will become infected and 4 percent of them are likely to die, and we will need social mobilization to help us deal with this because the NHS cannot handle it.