Coronavirus could leave up to 11 million more Americans uninsured
As many as 11 million Americans may lose insurance in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic, a new report estimates.
Amid the sprawling transmission of COVID-19, the economy has fallen into free fall, and U.S. unemployment has made a record-breaking jump of nearly 17 million in just three weeks, as companies shut their doors to slow the spread of the virus.
Health insurance – already relatively rare in the U.S. – is more important than ever during an outbreak that has already infected more than 490,000 Americans and killed over 18,000, while thousands more are fighting for their lives in hospitals.
But when employers lose business, employees lose their jobs and, in many cases, health insurance.
We may be nearing the peak of infections and deaths from coronavirus. The full outbreak of the pandemic is likely to last for months and cost millions of Americans the health insurance they desperately need right now, a report by Heath Management Associates (HMA) reveals.
Unemployment has already risen to 16.8 million and is expected to rise as the pandemic continues to plague the US. When people lose their jobs, they also lose their health insurance. Pictured: People who have lost their jobs are six feet apart waiting for unemployment benefits in Arkansas (file)
Before the pandemic, just over 3% of Americans were unemployed. HMA estimated how many millions of Americans would lose health insurance or move to Medicaid from 10 million (‘low’) 21 (‘medium’) or 33 million (‘high’) people lost their jobs during the pandemic
Analysts from the health care policy consultancy outlined the potential for cover loss in three scenarios: whether the increase in unemployment rate is ‘low’, ‘medium’ or ‘high’.
Before the coronavirus hit the U.S., unemployment hit a historic low of about 3.5 percent, reaching a record high of 2.5 percent in May 1953.
For the purposes of their report, HMA analysts have reduced the pre-coronavirus to three percent.
Even at that incredible low, 29 million Americans were uninsured.
If the increase in the number of people who lose their jobs as a result of the coronavirus pandemic is ‘low’, relatively speaking, analysts estimate that the number of uninsured Americans could reach between 30 and 31 million in the US.
The number of Americans relying on government-funded Medicaid is also likely to increase by 11 million, as about 12 million people lose employer-sponsored health insurance.
But perhaps we have already passed the ‘low’ unemployment rate.
Because the coronavirus has displaced millions from their jobs, many had to turn to food banks to feed themselves and their families
In addition to food insecurity, millions of Americans are now facing lives without health insurance
Economists expect more than 20 million people to be laid off, fired or fired by the end of this month.
Based on unemployment claims submitted this week, the New York Times estimates that the US unemployment rate is now around 13 percent and will flourish from there.
If the US reaches an ‘average’ unemployment level, leaving about 17.5 percent of the population unemployed, 34 to 35 million people could end up uninsured.
Medicaid enrollees would reach 88 million, and the number of people insured by their employers would drop to 140 million, down 14 percent.
The most horrible scenario HMA considered considered that a quarter of Americans would become unemployed after 33 million people lost their jobs in the course of the pandemic and its consequences.
In this case, 94 million people – about 29 percent of the population – would trust Medicaid.
To some extent, this increase is due to intent under the Families First Coronavirus Response Act.
Regardless of whether people lose their jobs or not, the legislation is designed to encourage states to keep people enrolled in Medicaid during the national emergency, even under circumstances that can normally end their enrollment.
One concern the authors of the report noted was that people who lose their jobs may not enroll in Medicaid and get much-needed health insurance simply because they are unfamiliar with the system or because the agency may become overwhelmed by the influx of job applications.
States are encouraged to allow more people to stay or enroll in Medicare because unemployed Americans lose their health insurance coverage during a pandemic. Pictured: Floridians line up to receive unemployment benefits in Miami
And in the worst case, up to 40 million people would be completely without insurance.
People in states who haven’t expanded Medicaid – usually in the deep South and parts of the Midwest – may be at greater risk of ending up without insurance, the report’s authors warn.
“While job losses qualify many people for Medicaid in expansion states, a third of all jobs are in non-expansion states,” they write.
Some of these states have already been severely affected by the corona virus. Louisiana now has the third-highest number of cases in the country in the US, and death has skyrocketed this week in Florida and Georgia.
“Given the inability of some newly unemployed individuals in non-enlargement states to qualify for Medicaid, we estimate that the uninsured rate in these areas could increase more acutely compared to enlargement states,” write the HMA authors.
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