Can Ukrainian Civilians Take on the Russian Army?

There is tension on the eastern border of Ukraine. Russian troops are massing. Is it a prelude to an invasion, or is it a political gambit?

Vladimir Putin is the President of Russia. He says Ukraine is a natural part of Russia. He has already taken control of Crimea, located on the Russian Ukraine border. A game of “chicken” is playing out. Russia wants the West to lessen its presence in countries neighboring it. This means keeping those countries out of NATO and the European Union.

Threatening to invade Ukraine is the card Putin is now playing. The U.S. and other NATO nations have pledged to support Ukraine. But it is not clear in what manner that support will come.

Meanwhile, Ukraine and other countries in the region are planning. They looked at the role non-military forces played in Afghanistan and Iraq. These groups are the “insurgents.” They are men and women bonded together by a cause. In Afghanistan, they formed the Taliban.

The Taliban were able to attack NATO troops in minor engagements. Often, it was through ‘improvised’ explosive devices. The devices would destroy a vehicle and injure its occupants. There was no way to stop them. It was part of what wore down American commitment to Afghanistan. And America left.

Recruitment of Ukrainian civilians to be insurgents is going on. Thousands of civilians are signing up to learn combat skills in training programs. The goal is civilian resistance to carry on the fight against Russia. An expert said Russia is likely to overwhelm Ukrainian forces in an invasion.

Government-sponsored training for civilians is part of Nordic and Swiss military strategies. The idea is gaining traction in parts of Europe. Ukraine began creating Territorial Defense Forces last year. They meet on weekends. Other private militias are forming.

An expert said defeating Russia is not possible. The plan is to create the threat of great disruption and resistance. The idea is to deter Russia from an invasion.

Ukrainian commanders say that half a million Ukrainians have military experience. They hope many of them would join a fight.

Volunteers might resist based on the tactics of the Islamist militias in Syria. The volunteers could use their knowledge of their neighborhoods to move close to the Russian soldiers. This strategy would make airstrikes and artillery fire not practical.

There are dangers to any strategy. Civilians may not answer the call to resist. Russia could see the militias as a bluff. The militias could always turn into something else. Militant groups could create domestic strife and turn guns on one another.

Of course, too many guns, in too many hands, carry the risk of crime, suicide, and domestic violence.

It is an ongoing drama.

Source: The New York Times December 27, 2021