Boris Johnson’s call to take off the production of fans for coronavirus patients is ‘pointless’ without additional personnel and additional equipment, leading medical doctors warn.
Over the weekend, the prime minister called on manufacturers to change their production lines and help manufacture the life-saving respirators.
But experts warned that there was not enough fully qualified intensive care personnel to operate the fans, which also require a large number of additional parts to function.
And they said it could take weeks, if not months, to ensure that the equipment is manufactured to a professional standard and rolled out safely across the country.
The NHS currently has approximately 5,000 fans for adults and 900 for children in intensive care settings.
According to the Ministry of Health, in the worst case it would need an additional 20,000.
The coronavirus outbreak has claimed the lives of 56 people and infected more than 1,950 – a jump of 407 in one day – in the UK.
Boris Johnson’s call to step up production of fans for coronavirus patients is ‘pointless’ without more personnel and additional equipment, doctors warn
The NHS only has 5,000 of the machines, and health secretary Matt Hancock said on Sunday that it will need ‘many times more than that’ in the coming weeks and months.
The coronavirus outbreak has claimed the lives of 56 people and infected more than 1,500 in the UK
Healthy British under 70s are urged to work from home if possible, avoid social contacts or go out and stop all non-essential travel
Nicki Credland, president of the British Association of Critical Care Nurses, said Nursing Times: “That’s an absolute guarantee – we just don’t have them. We will have to look at diluting our staff to manage the situation.
‘If you are an intensive care patient who needs ventilation, you need much more besides ventilation.
What is a fan?
A machine that helps people breathe.
It delivers oxygen directly to the patient’s lungs and removes carbon dioxide.
Fans are used to help a person breathe if they have lung disease or any other condition that makes breathing difficult.
They can also be used during and after surgery.
A breathing tube connects the ventilator to your body.
One end of the tube is placed through your mouth or nose into the airways of the lungs.
In some severe cases, the tube is directly connected to the windpipe through a small cut in the throat.
Surgery is required to make the hole in the neck. This is called a tracheostomy.
“There don’t seem to be any plans as to where we’ll get that extra kit or expertise from both.”
Dr. Rinesh Parmar, President of the Doctor’s Association UK, added: ‘While NHS hospitals are making contingency plans to create ITU [intensive treatment unit] beds and the government is buying more fans, the elephant in the room is the lack of highly trained intensive care nurses and doctors.
“It makes no sense to buy new fans without enough highly trained personnel to operate them.”
Dr. Parmar added that securing more capacity in private hospitals could free up more space for treating coronavirus patients who need respiratory assistance. But he warned that there were still too few intensive care beds in these hospitals.
He added, “The systematic underfunding of the NHS and the exodus of personnel led by the government ultimately left the country with a serious shortage of specialist intensive care nurses and physicians.”
Helen Meese, vice president of biomedical engineering at the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, said there were several issues with the use of automakers to make the fans.
Data from the Imperial College team shows that nothing can stop the coronavirus that overwhelms the NHS intensive care units. Even the strictest quarantine measures would not prevent many more cases than there are beds
London Waterloo was robbed of commuters this morning after official advice told people to work from home if they could
Bristol Temple Meads train station was terribly quiet this morning at a time when it would normally be busy during rush hour
This morning there was no rush hour traffic on the M60 near Oldham, Greater Manchester
UK citizens are told to AVOID non-essential travel GLOBALLY for 30 days in coronavirus lock
British citizens were told to avoid all nonessential travel around the world today as the government attempted to fight the coronaviris pandemic.
Secretary of State Dominic Raab said British people should avoid travel “globally” under new travel advice from the State Department.
The new rules will remain in effect for 30 days initially, but will “be subject to ongoing review,” he told the House of Commons.
“I am today announcing changes to FCO (Foreign and Commonwealth Office) travel advice, based on rapidly changing international circumstances,” he told MPs.
British travelers abroad are now facing widespread international border restrictions and lockdowns in several countries.
“The FCO will always consider the safety and security of British nationals, so with immediate effect, I have decided to advise British nationals on non-essential travel worldwide for an initial 30-day period and of course subject to ongoing review.”
He said the government spoke to tour operators, insurance companies, and airlines about an action likely to stall vacation and business trips, jeopardizing the company’s jobs and viability.
The shift comes after the president of the EU Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, announced outlined plans for a 30-day ban on all non-essential inflows into the block.
Dr Meese told it Health Service Journal: Ventilation equipment, like all medical equipment, is very strictly regulated to ensure patient safety.
“We need to be clear that while many engineering firms and individuals have signed up to support this initiative, it will take several weeks, if not months, to ensure that the right processes are carried out to increase the production of these precision parts. ‘
The NHS only has 5,000 of the machines, and health secretary Matt Hancock said on Sunday that it will require “ many times more ” over the next few weeks and months, possibly 20,000 at worst.
Mr. Johnson wants non-healthcare companies to do their job and help build the artificial respirators, and last night he called up more than 60 business leaders to encourage them to convert production lines.
Participants with knowledge of the call said the government wants the fan on stream for the next two weeks.
An individual reportedly participating in the call alleged that Johnson had known the ‘joking’ coordinated effort to build the machines could be known as ‘Operation Last Gasp’.
Johnson’s attempt to mobilize the British manufacturing sector has drawn comparisons to a scrap scheme to build Spitfires during World War II.
Leading companies such as JCB and Dyson have been asked to deploy resources to build more fans as the spread of the disease worsens.
A Downing Street spokesperson said after yesterday’s phone call that manufacturers were asked to “address this immediate challenge by offering skills and expertise and manufacturing the components themselves.”
“Companies can be involved in any part of the process: design, purchasing, assembly, testing and shipping,” said the spokesperson.
Mr. Hancock said before the call that there had already been an “enthusiastic response” from companies.
However, there have been warnings that components may be difficult to find due to further concerns about the time it takes companies to change their manufacturing process.
Experts have also warned that there is no point in an increase in artificial respirators unless there are enough health workers to serve them.
A supervisor told the Financial Times that the industry will be “very supportive” of the push, but warned it should be “powered by Downing Street.”
Another director said that if there are any companies that make the machines and want to switch to 24/7 production, other companies would be willing to ‘lend people to run the factories’.
A woman is depicted with a face mask in London Waterloo. People should avoid all “non-essentials” and avoid contact with other people, the government has warned
This morning a man is shown wearing a face mask at London Waterloo station. The UK is now on red for coronavirus, and train services may soon be cut or discontinued if people work from home
OFFICIAL STATISTICS SHOW THE TIP OF THE ICE CORONAVIRUS CRISIS IN THE UK
The Department of Health publishes updated statistics at around 2:00 PM every day, confirming the number of people who have coronavirus and the number of test results received in the past 24 hours.
But due to a change in the way officials track the outbreak, these figures represent only a small fraction of the real epidemic that is spreading across the UK.
Only people who are seriously ill and need hospital care, or who are already in the hospital when they show signs of the coronavirus, are now being tested.
People who get sick after traveling or think they have the coronavirus because they have the symptoms are not tested unless they need hospital care. Most patients simply isolate themselves at home until they are no longer ill.
A government announcement last week sheds some light on the true magnitude of the UK epidemic.
On Thursday, March 12, when the official number of cases was only 596, chief scientific adviser, Sir Patrick Vallance, said the actual figure was probably between 5,000 and 10,000.
The top estimate suggests that each confirmed case is worth 16.8 undiagnosed patients.
The official number of patients is now 1,543 – multiply that by 16.8 and the potential actual number of cases is 25,889.
Stephen Phipson, head of the Make UK industry, said that in the UK there are only a few small companies producing fans, but there is an ‘entire sector’ that ‘contracts’ production.
“You take the product from one person and then you build it to their design, then you sell it,” he told Sky News.
Hancock said on Sunday that fans will be key in the fight against the corona virus.
He said, “It’s about ventilation because it’s a respiratory condition. So we stop another activity and ask doctors who normally do other things to retrain, for example to use the ventilator. ‘
It comes after a second coronavirus patient died in Scotland, bringing the British death toll to 56.
The person was older, had other health problems, and was being treated by the NHS board for Glasgow, the Scottish government said in its announcement.
Wales has identified an additional 12 cases of the coronavirus today, bringing the total number of confirmed patients in the UK to 1,555.
Public Health Wales confirmed that the country now has a total of 136 infected patients, representing 1196 in England, 171 in Scotland and 52 in Northern Ireland.
It comes after scientists have warned that dramatic lockdown measures, which came into effect in the UK today, can last 18 months or more.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced last night that the British epidemic has entered “rapid growth” and that people should stop socializing, stop going out, work from home and avoid contact with older or unhealthy family and friends.
Over-70s and those with long-term health problems like asthma, high blood pressure, heart disease, or kidney disease should stay at home for the next three months from this weekend, he added.
The UK spiral epidemic is expected to kill thousands of people and continue through the summer and possibly into next year, experts say. There may already be 55,000 people infected in the UK, according to the UK’s chief scientific adviser.
Ambulance personnel are shown wearing protective equipment handling potentially dangerous monsters at St Thomas’ Hospital in London – the capital is the hardest hit area in the country
Shoppers queue to enter Costco’s wholesale supermarket in North London as panic purchases hold the country in the midst of the outbreak
Drastic coronavirus limitations can last TWO YEARS, Germany warns
The German Public Health Service has warned that the coronavirus crisis can last up to two years.
The Robert Koch Institute, the German federal government agency responsible for disease control and prevention, made the claim on Tuesday because it has increased the threat risk to Germany from ‘moderate’ to ‘high’.
It comes after German Chancellor Angela Merkel announced yesterday that meetings in churches, mosques and synagogues would be banned and playgrounds and non-essential shops would close if the country reached 7,000 confirmed cases and killed 14.
The Robert Koch Institute said the pandemic could last for another 24 months as pandemics usually run in waves.
According to RKI president Lothar Wieler, the length of time depends on how many people develop immunity to COVID-19 after contracting the virus, how many more people test positive for the disease, and how long it takes to develop a vaccine.
Dr. Wieler did not rule out the possibility that some of the emergency measures adopted by countries should continue to exist during that time.
Meanwhile, German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas said the government has devised about 50 million euros (£ 45 million) to bring home German citizens trapped abroad.
He announced a ride to bring home thousands of tourists stranded in popular winter vacation spots around the world – especially people on package tours in Morocco, the Dominican Republic, the Philippines, the Maldives, and Egypt.
Maas said the government, in collaboration with airlines, including Lufthansa, is spending up to $ 50 million on efforts to bring Germans home in the coming days.
London, which is said to be ‘weeks ahead’ of the rest of the country, is the worst-hit area in the UK and has confirmed at least 480 cases, with Kensington and Chelsea being the most infected municipality (43 cases).
And a report by leading scientists advising the government said people may need to continue the drastic lifestyle changes announced yesterday well into 2021.
The Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team predicted that 260,000 people could have died if the government had not changed course yesterday and tightened the rules.
Now it could limit fatalities to less than 20,000 by keeping people away from each other and slowing the spread of the virus.
One of the lead authors, Professor Neil Ferguson, said science was constantly shifting as more data became available, but what had been considered the worst case scenario had become “ the most likely scenario. ”
British officials only realized the danger “in the past few days,” the report said, after receiving new information about how the situation in Italy got out of hand and flooded hospitals. There, around 2,200 people have now died and there have been 28,000 confirmed infections, although the actual toll is likely to be significantly higher.
The crisis in Italy has led to a dramatic upturn in British policy, and Mr Johnson has announced that he must go to war to try to stop the outbreak.
The switch was a confession that officials’ original plans to control and slow the outbreak – to “smooth out” the curve – had been overly optimistic, and the scientific paper showed that the government was heading for disaster.
Officials are urging manufacturers to help by building intensive care fans if they can close an NHS deficit in critical beds.
But data in the Imperial College report suggests that hospitals will be overwhelmed no matter what measures the government takes, and a dramatic spike in coronavirus cases is inevitable
Meanwhile, the government is preparing a huge aid package to prevent the crisis from effectively bankrupting the country.
The deletion of utility bills and the scrapping of municipal taxes are among the extraordinary ‘wartime’ measures proposed for the response, which will later be revealed by Chancellor Rishi Sunak.
Some experts have suggested that the government will have to pump an unprecedented £ 450 billion into the economy to prevent massive destruction of businesses and workers.
Imperial College’s bomb report was prepared by a team of virus, disease and public health experts from the prestigious University of London.
Professor Ferguson said he and his colleagues have “worked seven days a week” for the past two months to advise the government and make information about the coronavirus public. They have concluded that the virus cannot be stopped.
A woman wears a face mask while riding a London Underground tube line
Older people – most at risk for coronavirus – are struggling to get essentials due to panic buyers raiding the shelves. A woman buys toilet paper from a Tesco in Chester
Prof Ferguson said his team had “refined” the predictions for the course of the epidemic since their worst-case estimate of 250,000 deaths.
“No country in the world has seen such an epidemic [250,000 deaths]”This is an early extrapolation from an early epidemic suppressed in China,” he said.
“But we have no reason to believe that this would not happen if we honestly did nothing, and even if we did everything we could to slow down the spread, not reverse it, we would still go to a very large number of deaths and the health system is overwhelmed. ‘
He added: “Initially when we came up with this estimate child, they were seen as the most reasonable worst case case.
But as information has been gathered in recent weeks, particularly from Italy but also from other countries, it has become increasingly clear that this is actually not the most reasonable worst case – it is the most likely scenario.
“The second piece of information that I think was critical is that NHS planners go out and see how much they can increase the capacity of the health system, especially in intensive care. While they’re planning a major extension of that – canceling elective surgery, building new beds, getting new fans – filling the gap is not enough.
“So we have no choice but to adopt this more draconian strategy.”
If no action had been taken against the coronavirus at all, it would have claimed 510,000 lives, the team’s report said.
Had the government adhered to their strategy of trying to “mitigate” the spread – allowing it to continue but try to slow it down – with limited measures such as home insulation for people with symptoms, the number would have been cut in half to 260,000.
If the strictest possible measures are introduced – including school closings and mandatory home quarantine – the number of deaths over two years will drop below 20,000, the scientists said.
“Rather than talking about hundreds of thousands of deaths, there will still be a significant health impact that we’ll be talking about,” said Professor Ferguson.
“Hopefully tens of thousands … maybe, depending on how early we are, just a few thousands.”
Government sources said the policy change was not the result of a sudden warning from the scientists, but new information had emerged in recent days.
A source at the Department of Health said, “We’ve been listening to Imperial all the time. It is based on an evolving picture and they have started to learn more about what is happening in Italy, what has informed it. We have been guided by science and evidence from the beginning. ‘
The imperial scientists emphasized that the measures will not end until a vaccine is made.
WHAT DO WE KNOW ABOUT THE CORONAVIRUS?
What is the coronavirus?
A coronavirus is a type of virus that can cause disease in animals and humans. Viruses break into the cells in their host and use them to reproduce and disrupt the normal functions of the body. Corona viruses are named after the Latin word ‘corona’, which means crown, because they are encased in a pointed shell resembling a royal crown.
The Wuhan corona virus is one that has never been seen before. It has been called SARS-CoV-2 by the International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses. The name stands for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus 2.
Experts say the bug, which has killed about one in 50 patients since the December outbreak, is a “ sister ” of the SARS disease that hit China in 2002 and is therefore named.
The disease causing the virus is called COVID-19, which stands for coronavirus disease 2019.
Dr. Helena Maier of the Pirbright Institute said, “Coronaviruses are a family of viruses that infect a wide variety of different species, including humans, cattle, pigs, chickens, dogs, cats, and wildlife.
Until this new coronavirus was identified, there were only six different coronaviruses known to infect humans. Four of these cause a mild cold, but since 2002, two new coronaviruses have appeared that can infect humans and lead to more serious illness (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) coronaviruses) .
“Coronaviruses have been known to occasionally jump from one species to another, and that has happened with SARS, MERS and the new coronavirus. The animal origin of the new coronavirus is not yet known. ‘
The first cases in humans were reported publicly from the Chinese city of Wuhan, which is home to approximately 11 million people, after doctors first reported infections publicly on December 31.
On January 8, 59 suspected cases were reported and seven people were in critical condition. Tests have been developed for the new virus and recorded cases have begun to rise.
The first person died that week, and on January 16, two were dead and 41 cases were confirmed. The next day, scientists predicted that 1,700 people had become infected, possibly up to 7,000.
Where does the virus come from?
Scientists say the virus almost certainly came from bats. Coronaviruses are generally from animals – the similar SARS and MERS viruses are believed to come from civets and camels, respectively.
The first cases of COVID-19 came from people who visited or worked at a live animal market in Wuhan, which has since been closed for research.
Although the market is officially a fish market, other dead and live animals were sold there, including wolf cubs, salamanders, snakes, peacocks, porcupines and camel meat.
A study by the Wuhan Institute of Virology, published in February 2020 in the scientific journal Nature, found that the genetic makeup virus samples found in patients in China are 96 percent identical to a corona virus found in bats.
However, there were not many bats on the market, so scientists say it was likely that there was an animal that acted as an intermediary and contracted it from a bat before transferring it to a human. What kind of animal this was has not yet been confirmed.
Dr. Michael Skinner, a virologist at Imperial College London, was not involved in the study, but said, “The discovery certainly places the origin of nCoV in bats in China.
“We still don’t know if any other species has served as an intermediate host to amplify the virus and possibly even market it, or which species could be the host.”
So far the fatalities are quite low. Why are health experts so concerned about it?
Experts say the international community is concerned about the virus because so little is known about it and it seems to be spreading rapidly.
It is similar to SARS, which infected 8,000 people and killed nearly 800 people in an outbreak in Asia in 2003 in that it is a type of coronavirus that infects people’s lungs. However, it is less deadly than SARS, killing about one in ten people, compared to about one in 50 for COVID-19.
Another cause for concern is that no one is immune to the virus because they have never encountered it before. This means it can potentially do more damage than viruses we often encounter, such as the flu or a cold.
Professor Peter Horby, a professor at Oxford University, said during a briefing in January: “New viruses can be spread through the population much faster than viruses that circulate all the time because we have no immunity to them.
Most seasonal flu viruses have a death rate of less than one in 1,000 people. Here we are talking about a virus where we do not fully understand the severity spectrum, but it is possible that the mortality rate can reach up to two percent. ‘
If the mortality rate is really two percent, it means that two out of every 100 patients who get it will die.
“My feeling is that it is lower,” added Dr. Horby ready. “We probably miss this iceberg of milder cases. But that is the current circumstance we are in.
“The two percent mortality rate is comparable to the Spanish flu pandemic in 1918, so it’s a major problem worldwide.”
How does the virus spread?
The disease can spread between people through coughs and sneezes, making it a highly contagious infection. And it can also spread before someone has symptoms.
It is believed to travel in the saliva and even through water in the eyes, which is why close contact, kissing, and sharing cutlery or utensils are all risky. It can also live on surfaces, such as plastic and steel, for up to 72 hours, meaning people can catch it by touching contaminated surfaces.
Originally, people were thought to be catching a live animal market in the city of Wuhan. But soon, cases began to pop up in people who had never been there, causing doctors to realize it was spreading from person to person.
What does the virus do to you? What are the symptoms?
Once someone has contracted the COVID-19 virus, it may take two to 14 days or even longer for them to show symptoms, but they can still be contagious during this time.
If and when they do get sick, the typical symptoms are a runny nose, cough, sore throat, and fever (high temperature). The vast majority of patients will recover without any problems and many will not need medical attention at all.
In a small group of patients, who appear to be predominantly elderly or those with long-term illnesses, this can lead to pneumonia. Pneumonia is an infection in which the lining of the lungs swells and fills with fluid. It makes it more and more difficult to breathe and if left untreated it can kill and choke people.
Figures indicate that young children do not appear to be particularly severely affected by the virus, which they believe is special given their susceptibility to the flu, but it is not clear why.
What have genetic tests revealed about the virus?
Scientists in China have recorded the genetic sequences of approximately 19 virus strains and released them to experts around the world.
This allows others to study them, develop tests, and possibly look into the treatment of the disease they cause.
Research has shown that the coronavirus has not changed much – change is known as mutation – much during the early stages of its spread.
However, the director-general of China’s Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Gao Fu, said the virus changed and adapted as it spread through humans.
This means that efforts to study the virus and to possibly control it can be made even more difficult because the virus can look different every time scientists analyze it.
More research may reveal whether the virus first infected a small number of people and then changed and spread from them, or whether different versions of the virus come from animals that developed separately.
How dangerous is the virus?
The virus has a death rate of about two percent. This is a similar death rate to the Spanish flu outbreak that killed about 50 million people in 1918.
Since the outbreak began, experts have disputed whether the actual number of people infected is significantly higher than the official number of recorded cases. Some people are expected to have such mild symptoms that they never realize they are sick unless tested, so only the more serious cases are discovered, making the death toll seem higher than it actually is.
However, a government survey in China found that there was no reason to believe this to be true.
Dr. Bruce Aylward, a World Health Organization official who went on a mission to China, said there was no evidence that figures showed only the tip of the iceberg, and that the recording seemed accurate, Stat news reported.
Can the virus be cured?
The COVID-19 virus cannot be cured and it turns out to be difficult to contain.
Antibiotics don’t work against viruses, so there is none. Antivirals can work, but the process of understanding a virus and then developing and producing drugs to treat it would take years and huge amounts of money.
A vaccine for the coronavirus does not yet exist and it is unlikely that a vaccine will be developed in time to assist in this outbreak for similar reasons as above.
The U.S. National Institutes of Health and Baylor University in Waco, Texas say they are working on a vaccine based on what they know about coronaviruses in general, using information from the SARS outbreak. But this can take a year or more to develop, he said Pharmaceutical technology.
Governments and health authorities are currently working to fight the virus and care for patients who are sick and prevent them from infecting other people.
People who contract the disease are quarantined in hospitals where their symptoms can be treated and they are away from the uninfected public.
And airports around the world are introducing screening measures, such as having doctors on site, measuring people’s temperature to check for fever, and using thermal screening to identify those who may be sick (infection causes elevated temperature) .
However, it can take weeks for symptoms to appear, so patients at an airport are unlikely to be noticed.
Is this outbreak an epidemic or a pandemic?
The outbreak was declared a pandemic on March 11. A pandemic is defined by the World Health Organization as the “worldwide spread of a new disease.”
Earlier, the UN agency said that most cases outside Hubei were “overflow” from the epicenter, so the disease didn’t really spread actively around the world.
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