This week features one of Africa’s most significant votes this year, as Kenyans go to the polls on Tuesday to decide a new president.
The contest is between current Deputy President William Ruto, 55, and Raila Odinga, a 77-year-old veteran of such campaigns now on his fifth attempt at the top job. The relationship with China, which has invested heavily in the country over the past decades, causing concern among Kenyans, has become a key battleground for the campaign.
The usual rule of favoring the incumbent has been reversed after Ruto fell out with incumbent President Uhuru Kenyatta, who in turn has thrown his weight behind Odinga. As a result, the competition is now wide open, according to the FT’s Africa editor David Pilling. Further FT commentary on Kenya’s poll, which will also include elections to parliament and 47 local assemblies, will be published as results come in.
Also this week, attention will turn (again) to a previously significant poll: the 2020 US presidential election. Rudy Giuliani, the former New York mayor turned personal attorney for former President Donald Trump, has been ordered by a New York -judge to testify Tuesday before a grand jury investigating efforts by Trump supporters to overturn Georgia’s 2020 election results.
That’s an indication of the threat the Georgia grand jury probe poses to Trump and those around him, more say, than the Jan. 6 congressional committee investigation into the 2021 Capitol attack.
In other news, the UK’s Summer of Discontent over post-lockdown pay cuts continues this week with up to 120 Red Funnel staff on the Isle of Wight ferry kicking things off with a walkout on Tuesday. More than 1,000 staff at Armagh City, Banbridge and Craigavon Borough Council, one of Northern Ireland’s largest local authorities, will go on strike on Wednesday, affecting waste collection, planning and leisure services.
On Friday it will be the turn of Glasgow Subway workers, a particular inconvenience for Rangers fans on a matchday, followed by a (second) national rail strike by Aslef train drivers at nine rail companies on Saturday.
On the bright side, and god knows we need it, Tuesday marks the start of the UK school exam season with Scottish students hoping for news that they have the necessary grades in Highers and Advanced Highers to secure university and college places.
This has been the first year students have taken the exam since the pandemic, so expect this to be discussed as a factor in the grades students will receive. It will also be a chance for a schools report on the Scottish National Party’s performance running education north of the border.
Economic data
The headline economic news this week will be inflation data from the US and China, plus the UK’s first stab at gross domestic product for the second quarter.
We could also get an indication of the future movement of fuel prices with the monthly oil market reports from the Energy Information Administration and Opec. The increasing likelihood of a recession and, by extension, concerns about oil demand will have an impact on these updates despite the fact that supply remains very tight.
Companies
Like the tan holiday, the rush of company results announcements fades away for another season. The dominant theme will be insurers, providing further evidence that inflation is causing damage to the sector, particularly car insurers, as the price of parts and other claims costs rise sharply.
After profit warnings in July for Direct Line and Sabre, all eyes will be on Admiral’s half-year results on Wednesday to see if its profitability and guidance can withstand the inflationary threat.
The other notable players are Aviva and Zurich. “These will provide more evidence of how the largest, diversified groups are doing in a period of rising interest rates and a worsening economic outlook,” says my colleague, FT insurance correspondent Ian Smith.
Read the entire weekly calendar here